With the Free Press allegations and ensuing NCAA investigation, there are three camps of Michigan fans in existence right now.
Old guard
Wants Rodriguez out immediately, even if it means firing him during the Victors Walk on the way to play Connecticut. Has disdain for this rock music that is being played throughout the stadium before big plays in lieu of a rousing “Let’s Go Blue” rendition by the horn section. Thought Lloyd Carr should have been allowed to designate his own successor, and wouldn’t mind seeing him make a Bill Snyder-like return to coaching so he could actually be appreciated this time around. Agrees that a Coach Carr 2011 Word-of-the-Day calendar would make an excellent Christmas gift, especially if all proceeds went to Mott Hospital.
Loyalists
Have amassed over 5,000 mgoblog points because they put an obnoxiously positive spin on any situation. Furious at the Free Press for its yellow journalism. Actively collecting copies of Mike Rosenberg’s Ten-Year War hardcover in order to stage a massive book-burning on the Diag. Believed Rodriguez would win eight games his first year. Believed Rodriguez would win eight games his second year. Seeks out TV cameras shouting “We’re No. 1!” when we are 1-5 in the Big Ten. Has collection of T-shirts that include “2000 Orange Bowl Champs” and “Spring Break South Padre 2002.”
Undecideds
Demands a program that follows all the rules. Demands a program that can behave and still be part of the national title conversation most years. Understands that pulling the plug on Rodriguez could lead to even more transition and more losing, to the point that football becomes like Michigan basketball, where no 16-year old remembers it ever being any good. Realizes that 2010 is a year to sit back and watch the team perform, because at this point there is very little risk. The program’s pride and reputation has already been tarnished. Not going to a bowl for two years is not much different from not going to a bowl for three. Either Rodriguez will win eight games, including two of the big four (at Notre Dame, Michigan State, at Penn State, at Ohio State), or I will be parodying Jim Harbaugh in this preview one year from now.
I’m part of the last group. Will we ever see Rich Rodriguez holding up a crystal football in January, wearing a block ‘M’ polo shirt? Not very damn likely. But part of me doesn’t want to rule it out yet, either.
So it begins.
September 4, CONNECTICUT – Back in the Lloyd years, this was exactly the type of nonconference opponent I thought made sense to schedule, in addition to Notre Dame. No Michigan team in their right mind will agree to play a home-and-home with an SEC school like Mississippi State and let those hicks ring cowbells in our ears for 3+ hours. That being said, playing a name school at home is the best way to protect yourself while establishing a decent strength-of-schedule.
On its best day, UConn is a No. 21-25 type team that will go 8-4, beat Rutgers 23-17 at home, and play in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. But image is everything – especially given everyone’s general perceptions about Michigan’s nonconference scheduling. The most important thing (besides winning) is that everyone thinks that UConn is a quality opponent.
UConn has a 1,400-yard rusher. It also has a quarterback with the throwing skills of Rube from Major League II. A Lloyd-coached team would apply the Ron Dayne treatment, allowing 52 yards on 18 carries and forcing UConn to throw the ball en route to a 17-point Michigan win. Not this 2010 team. Given the run-stoppage skills of Obi Ezeh, Craig Roh and Friends, do we really want to invite the Huskies to pound the football? We couldn’t stop the run last year, and we had Brandon Graham. Then again, suggesting they throw is troublesome, also. Can they give us the Jimmy Clausen treatment and overthrow several wide-open receivers on deep routes, while committing key holding penalties to stall drives? The way I figure it, if we keep them in 2nd-and-27, we might force them to punt on 4th-and-4.
In many ways, this is the same scenario that we faced last year when we opened up with Western Michigan. After an offseason of negativity, no one had any idea how the program would react. The spread against Western was (-14) and I wasn’t lining up to take us. Whether we played better than expected or Western was worse, we responded well. Of course, I doubt a Big East team is going to allow Denard Robinson to drop the ball in the backfield, pick it up, wave to his mother in Row 9, and then run 55 yards for a touchdown.
So we’re going to have to be ready. The stakes are high. Despite a 4-0 start that included two very notable emotional peaks (the Mathews touchdown reception against Notre Dame, and Forcier’s touchdown pass to Roundtree in the driving rain against Michigan State to send us to overtime in a game we had no business winning), we didn’t win another (meaningful) game the rest of the season.
What will happen if we don’t find a way to win here? Notre Dame becomes an even more doubtful proposition, then we’re 0-2, and Rodriguez is on his way out. I don’t even want to think about it.
Prediction – Michigan 31, Connecticut 27
September 11, at NOTRE DAME – My first thought about this game is to express surprise that it’s a 3:30 kickoff. What happened to the classic NBC 2:30 start? I have my routine down for road games at Notre Dame: Kickoff at 2:30, disappointment sets in around 5, game over at 6, and then it’s time to eat. Also, I have not yet joined the flat-screen HDTV movement, so I am always surprised at how “gray” the picture looks for Notre Dame games on NBC, compared with other college football networks. It’s like watching the game on Rudy’s dad’s TV – if it weren’t for the diagonal white lines in the end zone, I wouldn’t know we’re at the end of the field.
This year is interesting because both teams have a legitimate matchup in Week 1. Notre Dame hosts Purdue. I don’t have a media guide – has this happened in recent history, where the Notre Dame-Purdue game comes before the Irish play Michigan and Michigan State? Usually Notre Dame schedules down the first week under the disguise of being in some Eddie Robinson Classic (which sounds made-up, frankly), and then has Michigan in Week 2.
If Notre Dame is mixing up the order of its schedule, how about playing Michigan State before Michigan once in awhile? There is nothing more frustrating than losing a physically punishing game to Notre Dame, but weakening them just enough that they get steamrolled the next week by Michigan State, which is coming off Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic.
In addition to getting a true test right away, it also brings injuries into the conversation. While SMU is just as likely to ruin someone’s knee with a bad chop block as UConn, I think it’s reasonable to conclude that teams are more likely to suffer key injuries in bigger games, because your top-flight people are inclined to play the whole 60 minutes. Whoever emerges from their Week 1 matchup with fewer important injuries can be a deciding factor. (Editor’s note as of August 31: Michigan has already lost that battle.) It never ceases to amaze me. College football teams have 85 players, and for BCS-level schools, these are all 3-, 4-, and 5-star recruits with measurable speed and strength, but if one starter at linebacker or a special-teams guy is lost for two games, it brings the whole program down to its knees.
Like the David Molk thing last year. All of a sudden, his injury at center became the lynchpin for crazy crap happening, like losing 38-13 to Illinois. “Well, Molk’s been out. You can’t underestimate his impact on the offensive line.” Really? There isn’t anyone else on the roster that can snap a football and then burrow his helmet into someone’s knee? Rodriguez apparently had no contingency plan other than to take another lineman, David Moosman, and move him over to center during a game week. This resulted in snaps over Forcier’s head, snaps out of the end zone for safeties, Moosman putting his hands on his head repeatedly, the coaches yelling at Moosman like he was a dog that just peed on the carpet, and me having to pray before shotgun snaps on every 3rd-and-8.
I believe we can move the ball against Notre Dame, my concern is whether we can hold the fort ourselves. My assessment of last year’s 38-34 win is that we rarely stopped Clausen; he stopped himself with some terrible throws and cashed in for field goals (and a missed field goal) at times where he should have had six. We also had Good Forcier in that game. Forcier has regressed since then, to the point that he has continuous ringing in his ears, yells incoherently at assistants, and can only eat strained foods. Not quite sure how that situation will work out for us. There’s a lot of unknowns here.
When you’ve won eight frigging games in two years, any stat split is going to look bad, but only one of those eight wins was away from Michigan Stadium. (The random beatdown of Minnesota at the Metrodome where Nick Sheridan didn’t kick us in the nuts for four quarters.) Michigan Stadium used to be a marginal home-field advantage. It made playing on the road not that different from playing at home, especially at the less-intense venues like Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern, and Minnesota. Now, the home-field advantage is significant. By definition, going away from home just becomes such a culture change and so far we haven’t responded well at all under Rodriguez. You can bet the crowd will be pumped up for UConn and if we’re 1-0, our fans should travel well to South Bend. It’s not some road trip to Alabama. Maybe we can pull off a 2006-caliber surprise, but I’m too scared off by Notre Dame’s early-season positive press to pick a Michigan win.
Prediction – Notre Dame 27, Michigan 24
September 18, MASSACHUSETTS – Not much to dissect about a UMass home game. The fact that the athletic department put up UMass tickets for public sale should tell you something about the appeal of this game. I’m guessing this game is Big Ten Network material, and a quick check of mgoblue.com tells me that I’m correct. That means an afternoon of sideline interviews taking place on-camera during important third downs, bad-angle replays that spill into the next play from scrimmage, the ageless Wayne Larrivee and the aging Glen Mason. Can’t wait!
It’s also a good opportunity to pick up a second ticket for $10, so you can go tailgate in Crisler lot at halftime and use the other ticket to get back in the door – if you even care to come back for the second half of this one. That wouldn’t work in the NFL because they are so good about restarting the game quickly. They send you back to the studio, do some commercials before and after, and that’s it. You have barely enough time to check fantasy stats, throw the towels in the dryer, and make yourself a turkey sandwich. I love it.
Why are college halftimes so damn long? They insist on dragging both bands onto the field for 20 minutes, which is a minor irritation if you’re watching from home, but torture if you’re actually at the game. You have to sit in Row 29 and do the cost-benefit analysis of whether you want to fight the crowd up and down the stairs to go urinate in a horse trough and pick up a $3.50 Pepsi on your way back that is 25% regular Pepsi, 75% water and ice.
Total non-sequitur, but I took my son for the Michigan Stadium renovation tour a few weeks back. The suites are professionally done. They also have maybe 6-8 rows of “club seating” outside. From what I gather, these seats are like $500 and include all-you-can-consume concessions. The first (lowest) row of club seating is about 30 feet higher than the last row of the old Michigan Stadium bleachers. All that separates the first row of club seating from the bleachers is a thin angled pane of glass that looks like the teleprompter from the Academy Awards. I was getting vertigo just standing there and noticed how easy it would be to go over the edge.
This is a disaster waiting to happen. All it takes is some rich booster’s 19-year old son to sneak a flask with some nip into the club seats, and one of two things will occur. Either he gets tipsy and takes a fall over the edge, which would be terrible. Or he gets sick and yaks below onto a Women’s Studies major, which would be hilarious. Stay tuned.
Prediction – Michigan 47, Massachusetts 17
September 25, BOWLING GREEN – It’s been 10 full years since Bowling Green’s last visit to Michigan Stadium, but I remember it vividly. It was my first game covering Michigan football for The Michigan Daily, September 2000. From my campus apartment, I walked to the game in 85-degree weather, wearing a golf shirt and Dockers, already sweating. I figured, “U-M is a high-class place; surely this press box will have air conditioning.” (Inside joke for my Daily friends.)
Three weeks prior to that opener against BG, I looked at a roster that included Drew Henson, David Terrell, Anthony Thomas, Steve Hutchinson, and Jeff Backus on offense and thought we were candidates for the national championship. When you’re 21 years old, you pay less attention to defense. If I had considered that side of the ball and weighed the fact that our cornerbacks were The Two Stooges, James Whitley and Todd Howard, I might not have been so optimistic. I take that back – ever since Whitley was caught carrying a gun on campus, I made a personal vow to quit insulting him with my writings.
Then Henson got injured and missed the first 3 1/2 games of the season. His replacement was a freshman named Jack Navarre. The Bowling Green game was his first test, to show how he could handle the offense. We won 42-7. Looking back, it should have been a warning sign that Lloyd had to pull out a reverse to jump-start the offense that day. Lloyd preferred to save gimmick plays for bigger games so that opponents wouldn’t see them on tape beforehand. As if they had never seen Michigan run a garden-variety reverse in any of its other games!
Based on this performance, I concluded that Navarre would be good enough to get us through a road game at UCLA two weeks later. Probably my worst football-related assessment besides famously telling everyone that Ryan Leaf would be a better pro than Peyton Manning because “Manning looks stiff all the time, and Leaf is a gamer.” (But based on that Rose Bowl against Michigan, was that such an absurd point of view at the time? Hey, at least I admitted it.)
As our disappointing 9-3 season came to an end – footnote for all children growing up in 2010, back then 9-3 could be considered a disappointing season for Michigan – Bowling Green and I came full circle. BG’s coach had been fired, and one of their finalists was Michigan’s offensive coordinator, Terry Malone. Even though Malone had phenomenal personnel to work with, I still thought he had done a fine job at Michigan and was probably worthy of the opportunity to be a head coach at a place like BG, earn $350,000 a year, compile a 23-37 record over five seasons, and get fired with a nice severance.
I called down and spoke with somebody at Bowling Green, so I could put together a story. I can’t even remember the quality of this source; for all I know, he ran the Zamboni at BGSU Ice Arena. I was told Malone was one of two candidates. The other guy was an unknown assistant under Bob Davie at Notre Dame whom I had never heard about. I thought the job would be Malone’s, under the premise that “Davie can’t coach his way out of a wet paper bag, so what does that say about his assistant?” For some reason though, the athletic director and university president just didn’t want to pull the trigger on Malone. The Notre Dame guy ended up getting the job.
His name was Urban Meyer.
Ten years later, Malone is working in obscurity as a tight ends coach for the Saints doing bed checks on Jeremy Shockey, albeit with a Super Bowl ring. Meyer is an NCAA championship coach and celebrity whose cardiology exams are the subject of national interest. Go figure.
Prediction – Michigan 37, Bowling Green 20
October 2, at Indiana – I was going to craft an argument about how we are due to get burned by Indiana. But when you look at it, would losing a road game to this team really be that much of a surprise? We’ve had a number of other games with Indiana that were closer than they should have been. It would be irresponsible of me to type “Michigan 34, Indiana 21” and just move on.
Shoot, even last year’s game was a ridiculous combination of luck and poor officiating (and video review). Somehow Indiana got into the red zone like five times and got just one touchdown. Forcier’s balloonball for the game-winning score looked like a 350-point throw in the game “500” from when we were in grade school. Either that or he gently tapped “circle” on Playstation, I don’t know which.
Then with under 2:00 to go, Michigan gets an absolute gift when the officials grant us an interception on one of those simultaneous possession plays where the wide receiver and defensive back do a five-yard barrel roll while they fight over the ball. Usually the whistle sounds about 15 times and the players are still wrestling over it. I’m sure that’s part of the male DNA, like when I referee basketball and players like to “win” the held ball so they can flex their muscles over the other guy afterward. (That should be a separate sport. Roll a basketball out there and let two players fight to the death to wrest it from one another. Nut grabs encouraged! Coming this fall on G4 Network!)
Anyway, 99 times out of 100, the officials will give that play to the offense because A) that’s the rule, and B) an 11-yard completion is a lot less game-changing than an interception. Add that to the fact that Indiana was well on its side of the field at maybe the 25-yard line, and was making its final drive to try and win the game. Taking that opportunity away from the Hoosiers killed any chance they had. In the aftermath of Jim Joyce, the prevailing wisdom became, “Joyce’s mindset in that situation should be that the runner was out until the play 100% proves otherwise.” I buy that. The same logic would have saved the officials on the Indiana play. That play should have been an offensive possession until it was clearly an interception. (That is, if in fact they were deemed wrong by the conference – I officiate basketball, not football, so all I have is an amateur’s review of the play.)
Good thing we have instant replay. Now for me to say I “know” all of the NCAA instant replay rules is like people that say they know Microsoft Excel, when their definition of “knowing it” is knowing how to open up a blank spreadsheet, type some numbers in, and underline something. That’s fine, but it doesn’t mean you “know” it. Every time I think something can’t be reviewed because it’s a judgment call, like this play, they find the justification to review it. When I saw the video, I knew that Indiana would be getting the ball back. Then the announcement was made, upholding the interception. I was shocked.
So was Indiana coach Bill Lynch, whom I dumped on fairly well in last year’s preview. He ran up and down the sideline, throwing his gum. Which raises the question, exactly what does a coach have to do to get a 15-yard penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct? Unless you’re Bo Pelini, it appears to be virtually impossible. Of the four major sports, I would say that football and hockey are tied for being the toughest in terms of how easy it is to get a misconduct penalty for coaches. In hockey, you pretty much have to be standing on the dasher in your suit and tie, and maybe throw a few sticks on the ice. That will get you a whopping 2:00, the same as if one of your players held someone’s stick in the neutral zone. So what do you have to do to get 15 yards?
I asked this question of a football official that I know. Upon being sworn at on the sideline, he said that the proper procedure is for the side judge to ask the coach, “Do you care to repeat that?” and if he repeats it, throw the flag. In truth, no one ever throws that flag because especially in college football, the coaches wield the power, and all of a sudden, that side judge wouldn’t be working as many games in that conference.
It’s clear Lynch’s behavior would have merited a technical foul in basketball, and an ejection in baseball. Yet he was able to continue to rant and rave without being addressed by the officiating crew. Another unwritten tenet of officiating is that if you know a team got screwed, you give the coach a little more leash to get upset before you whack him. But in this case, that call had been upheld by video (even if unjustly so), so that officiating crew had no reason to believe a mistake was made.
Either way, Michigan has played with fire more than enough times when it comes to Indiana. This Indiana team will be able to move the ball. Having a starting quarterback return for a second straight year without getting kicked off the team must tie some sort of program record for the Hoosiers. They might not be overwhelming, but we sure can be underwhelming, and I’m thinking that adds up to a close loss in front of 34,000 sleepy/hungover fans in Bloomington.
Prediction – Indiana 30, Michigan 26
October 9, MICHIGAN STATE – In the aftermath of the initial Free Press story in August 2009, I went on the attack. I sent an e-mail to Free Press writer Shannon Shelton, who covers the Michigan State beat. Shelton is a Jemele Hill clone – female, graduated from Michigan State, more of a fan than a journalist, wrote for The State News, terrible writing skills. (I realize the last two mean the same thing). It read as follows:
“Shannon,
Undoubtedly your Free Press colleagues Rosenberg and Snyder are taking a tremendous amount of heat for their stories about the Michigan football program this week. As a believer in the role of the news media, I fully defend their right to investigate. I want my football program to be one that follows the rules.
Perhaps the outrage from Michigan fans is in part due to the fact that their counterpart on the Michigan State beat does not show an inclination toward investigative reporting of any kind. You would rather write stories about how Greg Jones was Academic All-Big Ten or how Andrew Hawken has great leadership skills.
So why don’t you drop your popcorn, take the autographed picture of Tom Izzo off your desk, and embrace the investigative responsibilities of your beat? If you are unable or unwilling to do this, I’m sure the Free Press can pair you with another reporter that can cover your weaknesses in this area.
Sincerely,
Chris Duprey, UM Class of 2001”
Right or wrong, it always feels good to dump on someone else. Needless to say, she never responded. Neither did ESPN’s Rachel Nichols when I e-mailed her to tell her America is capable of digested the spoken word at a faster clip than four words at a time. (“If the Eagles fall short … they’ll be on the outside looking in … for the playoffs … from Philadelphia … I’m Rachel Nichols … ESPN.”)
When the Michigan State potluck fight occurred, Shelton and the Free Press did what I deemed to be “minimum requirements” to ferret out the facts, and follow up as events unfolded relating to the discipline of the players. There were also the requisite Drew Sharp columns that involved several large words strung together awkwardly, condemning Michigan State. While I appreciated this media response, it still remains coverage of an event that fell in their lap – not the investigative “unearth a story that no one knew about” bent of mind that I so gently tried to encourage Shelton to adopt.
Where am I going with this, and how does it pertain to the game on October 9?
My sideways point is, Mark Dantonio is playing for keeps. He is the most credible and serious threat to Michigan’s overall health as a program since Duffy Daugherty, because he intends to be around for the long term and does not view this as a stepping stone to other jobs.
Dantonio will do whatever it takes to win. He will take Glenn Winston right out of a county jail sentence for a violent crime, give him a practice jersey, and let him work his way into the starting lineup. Yes, Winston is gone now, but Dantonio cashed him in for 61 yards and a touchdown in the Michigan game. That made it all worthwhile. Is anyone on talk radio saying how this is an important season for Dantonio to show he has control over his players’ behavior? No one cares. They just want to know if he can beat Michigan and make (lose) another bowl game. His calculations were correct. The story has blown over.
Sidebar: How was Winston allowed to return to campus as a student at all? Michigan State made a bunch of ruckus years ago about how they were using videotape to identify riot offenders and expel them from the university. So kids are getting kicked out of school for property crimes like couch arson, but after a violent crime that took place on your campus where one MSU student victimized another, Winston can come back and resume taking classes in “James Madison”?
That’s why I don’t regret the Demar Dorsey situation at all. Because in a way, it proved our own virtue. The head coach’s job is to seek out the best available talent. The job of admissions and university administration is to evaluate that person’s suitability for campus. Why should Michigan apologize because it has a checks-and-balances system that actually works?
Anyhow. We need to match Dantonio’s personal level of desperation through our play on the field. We need to play from ahead. In all three Dantonio games, we have trailed by double-digits at some point. I would feel better if the first five games show some kind of ability to stop the run on our part. That includes stopping the run involving Kirk Cousins. If he ends up with 80 yards on 8 “carries” (same stats Drew Brees had in the 2000 Michigan game), then there’s no point in watching.
Three of the last six Bunyan games have gone to overtime. I’m betting that’s where this one will end up also. But I can’t pick us to win until Michigan proves otherwise.
Prediction – Michigan State 30, Michigan 27 (OT)
October 16, IOWA – A year ago, this road game at Iowa was the beginning of the end of Tate Forcier’s freshman season. Forcier didn’t play well the previous week at Michigan State, but his drive to get the game into overtime was impressive. His fumble in overtime, where the only thing you can’t do is turn the ball over, was not.
Four quarters later in Iowa City, the entire outside perception of Forcier had changed. He had the same dazed look that Tyson had in Tokyo against Buster Douglas. He looked out of it mentally, but snapped back enough to engage in an argument with the coaches on the sideline. Much was made early in the season of his “I don’t get nervous” outlook. That’s a cool thing to say when you’re winning, but it doesn’t mean anything to say you “don’t get nervous” when you suck. Anyone can do that. If Forcier never plays substantively for the Wolverines again, know that this was his denouement.
Which left us with Denard Robinson, who put together a long, slow touchdown drive to pull us within striking distance late in the fourth quarter. Only Donovan McNabb’s Super Bowl drive took longer. Most of Robinson’s yardage involved him moving the ball with his legs or making sure throws within 8-10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He looked like a high school quarterback from Livonia Churchill whose parents shelled out $600 for him to go to “passing camp” and “7-on-7 camp” with the idea that he would be airing the ball out his senior year, and then he goes 3-for-11 for 26 yards and 2 INT in the first game. But he was effective and he did score, so Rodriguez went back to him for the game’s final drive, which came with much more stringent time constraints and ended up with him throwing a balloonball that met a worse fate than Forcier’s against Indiana two weeks earlier. Game over.
If we start 0-2 in the Big Ten as I have predicted, the pressure on this Iowa game will be enormous. A loss here advances us to 0-4 because of the 8 p.m. road game at Penn State that looms ahead. And then a winless Big Ten season becomes very possible. That’s what happens when the spectrum of possibilities ranges from fifth in the Big Ten, all the way to the very bottom, with no Northwestern or Minnesota on the schedule.
Iowa has turned into a program that is worthy of respect. They haven’t won the Big Ten yet, and that day might not come for them. Hayden Fry won just three titles in 20 seasons, and he’s a hero in that state. But Iowa has gone from being a team that might finish in the 3, 4, or 5 position in years that the schedule gives them a break from the better teams, to a team that will finish in the top five no matter what. In recent seasons, they have won prime-time road games at Penn State and Michigan State, which is not easy to do. Had they beaten Northwestern at home last year, they would have been co-champions. (Iowa can never beat Northwestern for some reason – don’t take my word for it, look it up. You don’t even need the points, just take Northwestern with the money line. They play November 13 this year. Happy Thanksgiving.)
The names on the backs of Iowa’s jerseys have not really changed from last year, making them even more fearsome. Stanzi. Johnson-Koulianos. McNutt. Three running backs will all compete for carries. Iowa’s version of mgoblue.com is already talking about how this team could go 12-0. I’m sure they’ll look at this game as a speed bump that they have to get past. For Michigan, after a potential 0-2 start in conference play, losing this one would be the beginning of the end. Let’s see how we respond.
Prediction – Michigan 24, Iowa 23
October 30, at Penn State – Maybe one of the more surprising stories over the last 10 years in college football is how Penn State has recovered. For the Lions to return to being one of the top three teams in the Big Ten after their 2000-2004 stretch is impressive. That late in his career, I doubted whether Paterno could ever bring them back.
Of course, in saying that, I’m suspending reality and pretending that Paterno actually coaches the team, even though he doesn’t travel to recruit, his assistants do all the work, and he doesn’t wear a headset so no one knows how in-tune he is with the game (although I can’t remember him ever wearing one). Not recruiting allows him to spend his offseason getting eye surgery that will allow him to be free from glasses, and then electing to wear glasses anyway.
All kidding aside, you have to give kudos to a staff that has turned out three 11-win seasons in the past five years with an 85-year old technically having veto power over everything you do. In contrast, even the mere rumor that Lloyd Carr was considering retirement back in the mid-2000s caused us to start getting recruiting classes that included the likes of Zia Combs and Carl Tabb. Many would say that Carr’s departure in 2007 came just before his shortcomings in recruiting would have bubbled to the surface. So to Penn State, I give you respect.
This 2010 season is going to be a challenge for Penn State. Penn State has rightfully taken a lot of heat for its scheduling most seasons, but this year’s slate is as brutal as they come. At Alabama, home against bowl-qualifier Temple, at Iowa, and at Ohio State. They are staring at two or three losses in just those games, guaranteed.
The defense looks inexperienced. Only five starters return, and I don’t recognize any of the names. Daryll Clark is gone, and one of their two quarterbacks is former Michigan recruit Kevin Newsome. (Remember the days when our next quarterback was definitely going to be Kevin Newsome or Shavodrick Beaver? This is why I don’t invest time following recruiting.)
Evan Royster is a senior this year, and they have a capable guy behind him who will also get some carries. Royster is the Jess Settles of the Big Ten this year, it seems like he’s been around forever. (This reminds me of the time a Michigan State fan told me “he swears” that Dugan Fife played eight years at Michigan. After we got to the bottom of things, it got straightened out – he was connecting the four-year careers of Fife and Travis Conlan, as if the two white guys were the same person.) Penn State does return my favorite name in the Big Ten, wide receiver Graham Zug. I can’t resist. If Darrelle Revis calls himself Revis Island, does that mean Penn State has Zug Island?
So really, the things Penn State has going for them in this game are as follows:
· 108,000 fans will all be wearing white clothing in an apparent intimidation attempt, including one fan wearing a Halloween mask of the coach (craziness – is such gamesmanship allowed?)
· They’re playing Michigan
When you think about it, outside of the environment, there’s no reason that Michigan can’t be competitive in this game. This could be like our last trip to Penn State. We capitalize on an early mistake and take a 10-0 lead and then do a Rich Rodriguez collapse afterward (circa Penn State 2008 or Illinois 2009).
Prediction – Penn State 31, Michigan 13
November 6, ILLINOIS – My all-time favorite Paterno quote came after Mario Manningham caught the touchdown pass that propelled Michigan to a 27-25 win over Penn State on my wedding day, October 15, 2005. A reporter was asking about the fragile mental state of the team after such a tough loss, given Penn State’s upcoming road trip to Champaign. But out of respect for Paterno, he was trying to finesse the question. So the exchange went as follows:
REPORTER: Coach, after a game like this, where does your team go from here?
PATERNO: (inaudible “wha, wha, ah”) To Illinois.
Classic Paterno answer! The only difference is, after our road trip to Penn State, we’re not going “to Illinois,” but the Illini are coming here.
Somehow, Ron Zook is back, and the advantage of that is it gives me a lot to write about. The Illinois administration kept Zook for another year ostensibly to avoid paying his $1.5 million buyout. Of course, if the coach owes the buyout, he fights it and reaches a settlement, but if the school owes it, a deal’s a deal, so pay up. Ridiculous.
I mean, really, if you’re Illinois, haven’t you determined the Zook project to be a failure by now? Like when Cam Cameron coached Indiana and he had Antwaan Randle El at quarterback. Even with Randle El as a senior, Indiana was going 4-7 or 5-6, so you knew it would only get worse once he graduated.
Same with Zook. All we heard about is how Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn were going to revitalize this program. But they left a team that went 3-9, so what’s really to look forward to? I have a personal problem with Benn, who occupied a spot on one of my fantasy football rosters for three terrible years of “3 catches, 29 yards, no TD.” And he was still taken in the NFL Draft! I hope he gets cut and has to spend the season returning missed field goals for the Montreal Alouettes in weather that is measured in Celsius. And maybe tear his ACL while he’s at it!
So Illinois kept Zook for 2010 but “encouraged” him to get rid of most of his assistants. I’m sure that’s an appealing job, to become a coordinator for Zook and know you’re going to be fired after one year. (Maybe Scott Shafer should have applied.) The schedule appears to cut Illinois a break by having them miss Iowa and Wisconsin, but that still leaves the Arch Rivalry against Missouri in St. Louis, Ohio State, at Penn State, and at Michigan State, all guaranteed losses.
This is where this train wreck is going – after losing to Northwestern at Wrigley Field, a 3-8 Illinois squad has Thanksgiving week off heading into an oddly scheduled game at Fresno State on December 3. (I believe the only road game a Big Ten team should be playing on December 3 is one in Hawaii.) Midway through the second week, rumors will leak out that athletic director Ron Guenther is going to fire Zook on the plane ride home from Fresno, possibly while flying at an altitude of 10,000 feet over one of the Plains states. Guenther will be asked about his plans, he won’t want to respond, but the rumor-mongering will grow so intense (by Champaign standards, anyway) that the day before the game, Zook will admit this is his last game at Illinois, the same way Charlie Weis coached his last game on the road against Stanford when everyone knew he was done.
We all know it’s going to end badly for Zook and Illinois. This road trip to Michigan better not be the “Greg Robinson gets carried off the field” moment when loser Syracuse won at Notre Dame that year. Although it would be ironic for Robinson to watch that scene this time around.
Prediction – Michigan 30, Illinois 23
November 13, at Purdue – Even more evidence that this isn’t the Michigan football of old: The last two games against Purdue, we have been outscored by a total of 86-78 and lost both. Purdue used to be somewhat of a pest to deal with, preparing for Tiller’s offense in the middle of Big Ten play, but we had a track record of success against them so it was no big deal. Now you add in two straight losses and the Danny Hope-Rich Rodriguez throwdown after last year’s game, and the tone between the two teams is entirely different.
I’ve got to believe that Hope had some decent evidence and hearsay indicating that Rodriguez was involved with the Big Ten suspending Hope’s lineman for an incident in the Northern Illinois-Purdue game. If you’re Hope and you’ve merely got suspicions, maybe you call Schembechler Hall and have a tense conversation with Rodriguez on Monday after the game. To script a conflict in public after a game where you should have felt blessed just to win, well, I suspect Hope had it on good account that Rodriguez was the culprit. That’s just my theory. And it doesn’t begin to explain why he chose such a bizarre style of confrontation in front of 110,000 but then refused to elaborate on the matter afterward, saying, “It’s between me and Coach Rodriguez and will stay that way.” Pot, meet kettle.
That being said, if anyone thinks this is going to motivate Michigan to “get revenge” on Purdue this year, that’s foolish. You can only play the motivational card so many times during a season. Let’s see what other motivational cards we’re playing. Vs. UConn, the Mealer brother is taking us out onto the field. At Notre Dame, we hate them. Vs. Michigan State, we hate them. At Ohio State, we hate them. Plus “revenge” on all the other teams we’ve lost to in the last two years. So this Purdue game doesn’t really move the needle.
Imagine if Rodriguez even tried to explain to the players the source of the hostilities – “You see, their coach accused me of turning one of his linemen in to the Big Ten, so he brought the guy over to meet me after the game last year, which was really classless.” Would the players even be interested in following this chain of events? At best, this won’t register with them as a motivating factor. At worst, the season will be headed down the drain, they’ll conclude Rodriguez is a lame duck, and think, “This guy is nuts, it’s probably his fault anyway. Either way, I don’t give a shit.”
Prediction – Purdue 42, Michigan 34
November 20, WISCONSIN – This will be an interesting game because we do not know what to expect at this point in the season. We could be playing for a bowl berth. We also could be playing for nothing in particular. Assuming the worst, Rodriguez will be a lame duck and this game could serve as just one more opportunity for reporters to interview 30 players in the Crisler parking lot after the game to see what information they can ferret out.
I will be motivated to watch this game, for the sole reason that something about Wisconsin fans strikes the wrong chord with me. Because they’re the only Wisconsin school of any consequence, they have an Ohio State-like pride about them. One Michigan transplant living in Milwaukee told me, “That university is ridiculous. They’ve got Bucky the Badger doing assemblies in my kid’s school.”
Wisconsin fans travel in droves and are not bashful about wearing head-to-toe red wherever they go. Personally, when I go to road games, I dress neutral to avoid conflict with others (especially at Michigan State) and am usually found in a nondescript gray Nike shirt with cargo shorts. I am not out to wear a block ‘M’ stocking hat and block ‘M’ gloves just to show people that I shop at the M Den. But that’s just me.
That being said, I am in a couple of fantasy college football leagues with some of these Wisconsinistas, and they are extremely pleasant, and dare I say, amusing. At least over e-mail. Maybe I am mischaracterizing an entire group of fans, but Lord knows we have plenty of other schools that hate Michigan people, deserved or undeserved, so why can’t I have a turn disliking somebody?
My favorite Wisconsin fan interaction came on my first trip to Vegas back in 2003. It was late August, right around now, and back then, teams played a lot more early games. Wouldn’t you know, Wisconsin was playing at UNLV that first weekend – just like they are this year. Of course, a game at UNLV is a great excuse for most fans of a team to spend a few days in Vegas, but when you add in Wisconsin, it becomes a true road crowd.
Before the game, my friend and I were riding in the elevator with two of these Wisconsin dweebs, a couple of guys in their mid-40s, one of whom was wearing a 1980s-style Wisc hat with the typewriter ‘W.’ We weren’t wearing any kind of athletic gear, so no one could tell our affiliation. We could have been from Wyoming, there for the rodeo. My friend has no favorite team, and just enjoys poking fun at every school, especially when they have nut fans. He said, “Hey, are you guys going to make the Rose Bowl without having to play Ohio State again?” The Wisc fan replied, “You suck, Blue!” So obviously there’s a bit of a complex there, if only from the small cross-section we encountered.
The spread for that game was Wisconsin (-6), and I’m sure all these guys thought this was an opportunity to repair the Winnebago (not a P.J. Hill reference) and pay for their down payment on 2003-2004 Bucks season tickets. I watched some of the game on TV, in between blackjack hands of “17 against a 10” and “doubling down 11 and getting an Ace.” The Badgers were winning handily, like 27-7, with 8:00 to go in the game when all of the power at Sam Boyd Stadium went out, leaving the stadium dark. The game was eventually called and Wisconsin was declared the winner. However, since the game clock had more than 6:00 left, somehow per the fine print, all bets were declared null and void. Sorry, Bucky. Who knows – maybe the sportsbooks decided to stage that little “technical failure.” Old Vegas still lives.
All of the other storylines of this game are too tired to rehash. You might not believe this, but offensive coordinator Paul Chryst believes Scott Tolzien can manage the offense and make good decisions. John Clay feels really good this year after offseason surgery. Maybe his extra weight will give him stamina in the rugged Big Ten. Or maybe it will cost him valuable speed. The team could be special because it has good leadership. All that maple syrup that you hear in August.
So whether we’re 4-6 or 6-4 at that point, I want to win this game for spite. And given that Wisconsin isn’t the kind of team that will test a secondary, I like our home history against them to continue.
Prediction – Michigan 26, Wisconsin 20
November 27, at Ohio State – Let me first say that the thought of moving the Ohio State-Michigan game to an earlier week is very depressing. No further discussion needed – the Ohio State-Michigan game should be on the last Saturday of the regular season at noon, on ABC. Even playing it at 3:30 in 2006 was off-putting. Keith Jackson used to be a requirement for me, but I’ll take Brad Nessler. No one seems to like Brent Musburger, but when he dies, let his epitaph read this: “If Brent Musburger was there, you knew it was a big game.” So I’m OK with him doing that game as well.
Ask anyone that knows me, I have my own definition for when the four seasons begin and end. I don’t rely on solstices, equinoxes, and all that shit. Spring starts the week of conference tournaments in college basketball. Summer starts with the Kentucky Derby. When the ball goes on the tee at Michigan Stadium, fall has begun. And winter starts the moment the clock hits 0:00 in the Ohio State-Michigan game. Now you’re going to take one of my milestones and move it to September 27 or October 13? How is that possible?
See my supplement at the bottom where I discuss conference divisions in full. I don’t see any reason Michigan and Ohio State can’t play in the same division. Yes, only one will advance and play in the conference championship game, but the good news (if and when Michigan returns to prominence) is that one of those teams will likely advance and play in the conference championship game. That’s good for the Big Ten, and good for college football. It eliminates the possibility of Michigan and Ohio State playing twice on consecutive weekends. If you lose that game, you won’t be in the Big Ten title game, and that’s probably the way it should be. This isn’t 1975 where you have to stay home if you lose. There are other quality bowls, even BCS bowls, that would like the loser of that game with a 9-2 record. So what’s the risk?
As for this year, watching Tressel manage these games against Michigan is a lot like watching the Lloyd Carr years. When he has the superior team, as he certainly has had the past three years, he wisely plays to avoid mistakes, allowing the talent to dictate the result. Yes, he won 42-7 in 2008, but that game just got out of hand. Tressel didn’t really play to win according to that kind of score. 2007 and 2009 were more his style. In 2007, Lloyd’s last rivalry game, that score would have ended up 14-3 even if the game was 120 minutes long. 2009 was similar. He gets a 10-point lead and sits on it better than any coach I’ve watched.
Tressel also doesn’t fully turn Terrelle Pryor loose in these games, which makes his statistics look very average. But when Pryor needs to get yardage, he does. Off tackle on first down. An incompletion on second down, wisely throwing the ball at the feet of the running back when pressure closes in. On third down, goes back to pass and escapes out of bounds for a gain of 7 and a first down. (No one ever seems to get a clean hit on Pryor.) Fresh set of downs. Wide receiver screen for 4 on first down. Off tackle on second down for no gain. A tightly weaved throw over the middle to Sanzenbacher on third down to move the chains. And so on. You think you’re close to stopping Pryor, but you’re really not. He ends up 11-for-19 for 136 yards, a touchdown throwing, a touchdown running. But he wins.
I think that’s why last year’s Rose Bowl was such a surprise. Pryor’s passing statistics always look average, and maybe he’ll never live up to the hype that everyone had for him as a running quarterback. Many, including myself, thought Oregon and Jeremiah Masoli would outgun him in that game. But it was Masoli that fell behind and had to become one-dimensional. When you win BCS bowl games, you get respect, and Pryor and Ohio State got respect in that game. At least they did from me. They’ll be done with us by halftime.
Prediction – Ohio State 37, Michigan 17
Here were some other thoughts that didn’t make it into the regular preview. Since I don’t have a regular column, I’ll address them here.
Divisional alignments in the new Big Ten
What they say about divisional alignment plans is the same thing they say about opinions. Well, I happen to have one too. Trying to put the divisions together is like those logic puzzles you do in fifth grade. “John is not wearing a blue hat. Mike’s hat is the same color as Sam’s shirt.” Aside from maintaining maybe one important rivalry, everyone has the singular interest of wanting to play in the weakest division possible. Because the conference is being so secretive – until one day they just drop the bomb and watch all the fan bases get angry – let me meander through the process a little bit.
Consideration #1 – How do you classify the teams?
Here’s how I look at it.
Ground chuck – Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern
Ground round – Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska
New York strip – Ohio State, Penn State
Consideration #2 – Must the divisional alignment for football be identical to the alignment for all the other sports?
It would be easier if there was the concept of a football-only alignment, because then you could take geography out of the equation. I understand that when Nebraska is playing a women’s basketball game in State College on February 16, geography becomes an important consideration. But for football, everything is a charter flight and the teams are only playing four conference road games anyway. What is the importance of getting to the Iowa City Marriott an hour earlier on Friday before the game?
My goal is to put together the most equitable football divisions and let the meaningless (I mean, non-revenue) sports fend for themselves.
Consideration #3 – What are the special interests that must be taken into account? How must certain whiners be pacified?
Iowa and Nebraska want to be in the same division. Apparently their hick rivalry is important to the fan bases, even though they haven’t elected to play each other in nonconference in 10 years. Let them eat corn.
Michigan wants to maintain Michigan State and Ohio State as natural rivals. This does not help us pursue the end goal of getting to the conference championship game very well, because these are two tough games every season, and God forbid they’re both on the road. Michigan wanting these two as natural rivals is like the high-school kid that takes AP Chemistry, AP Physics, and Calculus in the same year, just to prove he can.
Wisconsin and Iowa are two wild cards. They think they’re New York strip, but they’re really ground round. Wisconsin football fans are incredibly deluded about what their football pedigree actually is. Iowa had one good year last year, otherwise they are a solid No. 4-5 team in the conference. They are charter members of the second tier.
Northwestern will do what it is told to do. Do they even have a fan base? This is a school that only draws 28,000 for their big crosstown tussle with Northern Illinois every year. You don’t need to worry about upsetting them. I think they have some kind of pissing match going with Wisconsin, which I have no problem continuing if it will make them happy.
Conclusion – Each division will have one New York strip, three ground rounds, and two ground chucks.
The Paterno Division will include Penn State, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Minnesota, and Indiana. This preserves the Land Grant rivalry of the two state schools. Also, because Nebraska is one of the stronger ground rounds, this division gets the two weaker ground chucks in return. The fact that Joe Paterno can win his own division is far more deserved and honorable that Ron Mason being able to win a CCHA tournament trophy with his name on it.
The Hayes Division will include Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, and Illinois. Everyone can calm down, Ohio State and Michigan will continue to play each other. Wisconsin and Iowa have some kind of thing going. Michigan and Michigan State won’t be in the same division, so they won’t play each other every year, but that’s been the case in basketball for awhile and no one’s died from it.
I also think there should be a provision whereupon the divisions are revisited every 10 years to correct any kind of competitive imbalances. For now, Nebraska, enjoy that road trip to Bloomington! I hear it’s a rough crowd. And you thought Oklahoma was hostile!
Michigan football as a brand
Recently, my mom asked me to go through a few boxes of “crap” that were being stored in my old bedroom to see if anything could be thrown away. (Don’t worry, I hung onto all the baseball cards from the Topps set that included a gold trophy in the corner to designate rookies – Casey Candaele included!)
I ran across a few old game programs that I got from attending Red Wings games in the late 80s. One had Dale Hawerchuk of the Winnipeg Jets on the cover, and I noticed a few things in the advertisements. First, this 1989 Jeep Grand Wagoneer with the wood paneling looks like a car I might be interested in test-driving. And second, there was a full-page Little Caesars Pizza ad showing two medium supreme pizzas, reminding me of how good Little Caesars used to taste.
When I was five years old, we moved back from California to our home state of Michigan. Until we could find a permanent place to live, we were living in a Sheraton in Novi. Proof that my mom is a saint – my dad started his new job that Monday, and my mom was stuck in this Sheraton room with kids aged 5 and 13 months for five workdays straight, with no transportation of any kind. I was bouncing off the walls, plus she was taking care of a baby, and she was just stuck. I don’t know how she did it.
One night my dad ordered a large pizza from Little Caesars. (I don’t think they deliver anymore.) I distinctly remember him answering the door at the hotel, telling the delivery guy, “But we didn’t order two pizzas.” He had to be convinced that this was how Caesars operated. The idea that you got two large pizzas for $7.99 was foreign to him.
The pizza was good. Back then, Caesars didn’t put the pizza in boxes the way they do now. They put both pizzas on a cardboard tray, slid the tray into a large paper bag sideways, and then stapled the ends of the bag. The pizza had great crust and sauce. As a family, we ate Caesars once a week for probably 15 years after that.
At some point, the crust got worse and everything else started to go downhill. I’m sure company sales were declining, and they didn’t know why. So eventually they just said, “The hell with it. Make any large pizza $5 and we’ll make it up on volume.” Now Little Caesars is subsistence food, like ordering off the dollar menu. You never hear anyone get excited and say, “Let’s get Little Caesars tonight!”
Alright, the story was long-winded (fits my personality), but let me connect this to Michigan. Michigan football used to be a premium product of which everyone associated with the university could be proud. Tickets were difficult for the general public to obtain. Home games had a mystery to them, an air of exclusivity. During my childhood, I went to maybe three games total. In the last 10 years, there have been various increases in Michigan Stadium capacity. The last of these increases, coincidental or not, has come at a time when the program is at its worst shape in 50 years (or maybe ever). Stadium size may increase even more in the future.
I am afraid we are taking the Little Caesars route. Coupled with the (albeit unintentional) dilution of the product on the field, we are making Michigan football games more accessible to fans than ever before. Almost like we’re trying to “make it up on volume.” I don’t want a stadium that seats 120,000, showcasing a team that goes 6-5, with available tickets for everyone that has $60 cash in their pocket.
Nothing can replace the consistency of 10-2 records, co-Big Ten championships, playing in January 1 bowl games, and winning our share. Let’s not get distracted with too many side projects. Getting this program back on track requires the singular focus of everyone at the university.
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